How Should the UK Engage with Iran? OP ED by Bill Rammell, Chief Executive of Parallel Histories.

Iran is a nation with a rich and ancient history, and it is one of the oldest continuous civilisations with settlements dating back to 4000 BC.

Iran matters to the UK because it is a major regional power, because of its large reserves of fossil fuels (the second largest natural gas supply and third largest proven oil reserves), its location along the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz, giving it control over vital shipping lanes for oil and gas exports, its geopolitically significant location, and its role as the world’s focal point of Shia Islam.

I served twice in the last Labour Government at the Foreign Office. First as a Junior Minister with Jack Straw as Foreign Secretary. Who I think rightly can be described as one of the UK’s foremost experts on Iran, and a few years later as Minister of State for the Middle East, where I covered Iran.

During my first stint I distinctly remember one conversation with Jack in about 2006/07 when I said to him, “You know Russia are the worst b’….s I’ve negotiated with anywhere in the world.” And Jack replied, “Ah yes Bill, but you haven’t yet negotiated with Iran!” And I think that judgement may well be correct. Within the hierarchy of extremely challenging nations, Iran may well be the worst. It’s important, it is very challenging, dangerous, it’s sophisticated and is undoubtedly a malign actor in international affairs.

Its sponsorship of aggression and terrorism in the region and beyond is a huge concern. That was brought home to me very personally. After life as an MP and minister I became a University Vice Chancellor. And after that I served as President of a University in Iraqi Kurdistan. And I graphically remember shortly before I arrived in Erbil the Iranian sponsored bombing attack on a car show room near where I ended up living. And that example has been repeated countless times in the Middle East and beyond. Which is why virtually every Middle East nation, whatever they say publicly, is hugely concerned about Iran.

It’s why a nuclear armed Iran is such a huge concern.

And the last Labour Government was hugely concerned about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its regional aggression and its internal repression. Where it’s record on oppression is amongst the worst in the world, where it disproportionately targets women and minorities. And we were very concerned at the harassment of British Council staff in Tehran which forced the Council’s closure in Iran.

But in spite of all that, our view in Government in the first decade of this century was that it was best to try to use hardheaded pressure, sanctions and diplomacy to manage the threat and challenge that Iran presented.

And we were explicit that pressure on Iran should be accompanied by an offer showing the benefits of engagement and co-operation with the international community.

And we were at the heart of what was called the E3+3 process – unimaginable in today’s geopolitical context – where the UK, France and Germany, alongside the US, Russia and China negotiated and pressed Iran over its nuclear ambitions. And that led ultimately to the Obama nuclear deal with Iran.

Tellingly, and I fear so different from today, there was cross party consensus on this. I remember being challenged in the House of Commons by the formidable Tory grandee Douglas Hogg who said (and I’m quoting having checked Hansard), “does the Minister agree we should stress to Mr Netanyahu and the Israeli Government that their interests are best served by working in concert with the United States and European Union, rather than contemplating unilateral action on their own part”. I answered “Yes”.

And I still believe that view which led in the end to the 2015 “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action”, was the right one. And then in 2018 Netanyahu persuaded Donald Trump in his first term as President of the United States to withdraw from that Plan of Action. And we have been bearing the consequences ever since.

Even today, my view is that engaging with Iran is the only way to enhance global security. Bombing by Israel and the US can delay Iran, but military action will not wipe out the accumulated knowledge and skills of Iran’s scientists.

And look at the likely reality of the recent bombing. It does seem likely that Iran’s enriched Uranium is still intact, moved before the bombing of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

And the regime is arguably hardened in its resolve to go nuclear and withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty, ending oversight by UN inspectors. This has arguably made the situation worse.

None of that is to deny that we have a huge problem with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If Iran got nuclear capability be in no doubt Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey would follow suit. Making our world dangerously more unsafe. And none of that is to deny that Israel has legitimate grievances against Iran, whose Supreme Leader is committed to the obliteration of Israel. But bombing is not the solution.

The only way forward is reinforced sanctions, pressure, diplomacy to get a renewed nuclear agreement with extensive/intrusive inspections by the IAEA.

Will Iran play ball? Well, the regime is weakened and fearful. The Israeli intelligence for their attacks was remarkable, indicating the scale of insider leaking showing how the regime is losing authority and grip.

There has been a lack of tangible support for Iran in the region and beyond. And very interestingly there have been a variety of voices (which have been allowed) in the public, press and media sphere since the bombings debating whether the regime should pursue a deal with the US. The moderate newspaper Arman-e-Melli has said talks with the US would be a sign of strength. Even the conservative Johmhouri-e Eslami has urged that talks with the US should be maintained.

And even though I think the bombings were misguided and foolish, they might concentrate minds in Tehran.

And will the regime survive and endure? It is very difficult to say. And there is a risk that what comes after could be at least as bad if not worse.

But that simply takes me back to my starting point. What drove the Foreign policy of the last Labour Government was a conviction that engaging with Iran was the only way to enhance global security. I think that was right then and it is right now.

Bill Rammell is the Chief Executive Officer of Parallel Histories and was an MP and senior minister in the last Labour Government.